The economics of seasonal cycles jeffrey a miron nber working paper no 3522 issued in november 1990 nber programseconomic fluctuations and growth since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation in general macroeconomists abstract from this seasonal variation . Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations historically economists sought to understand the economic significance of macro fluctuations . During the 1920s and 1930s the focus shifted to business cycles and seasonal fluctuations were treated as noise that could be removed from data before analysis jeffrey miron seeks to reverse this trend arguing that seasonal fluctuations have much to teach macroeconomists he analyzes the economic forces that produce seasonality and discusses the lessons about economic behavior that result . The economics of seasonal cycles by miron jeffrey a publication date 1996 topics business cycles seasonal variations economics publisher cambridge ma mit press collection inlibrary printdisabled trent university internetarchivebooks digitizing sponsor kahle austin foundation contributor internet archive language english xv 225 p 24 cm includes bibliographical references p . Get this from a library the economics of seasonal cycles jeffrey a miron national bureau of economic research since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation in general
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